The holidays are fast approaching as we move toward the end of the current year and look optimistically forward to the challenges and opportunities that will come our way in 2020.  To be sure, we are hopeful things will go better for all of us as we continue to work our way through and out of a what remains somewhat of a flat, but stable, market in our area in terms of the number of new homes constructed and sales made annually the last five years.  随着积极的事情发生，比如消除扼杀就业的政府法规, especially at federal level; stabilizing costs of materials; continuing near record low interest rates; and what appears to be gradual but still growing confidence in the overall economy, we have much to be thankful for.

Given what we know about our market conditions locally, I thought it would be beneficial if all members of our Association had access to the content of a recent interview conducted with NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz wherein, he talks “growth recession” and housing in 2020.  所提出的全部问题以及迪茨对这些问题的回答如下:

NAHB经济学家罗伯特·迪茨谈到2020年的“增长衰退”和住房

Q&A with the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist to answer some of the industry’s burning questions about the housing market and economic forecast.

By Mike Beirne, Senior Editor | October 22, 2019

What inning is it in the economic cycle? Will the next recession be a mild one? These are the questions inevitably asked whenever home builders get together and an industry economist like Robert Dietz is on stage. 

Dietz worked as an economist for the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation before joining NAHB in 2005, where he currently leads a group of 12 economists producing housing forecasts and analysis across several housing metrics. 

我们问了他一些房屋建筑商目前面临的紧迫问题, like where the economy is headed, the impact of mortgage interest rates on sales, 住房政策制定者应该注意哪些供给方面的问题.

Q  What’s your current forecast for the U.S. economy, and does it involve a recession?

A  Our forecast window goes through the end of 2021, 而且我们目前的预测表上还没有出现全面衰退. 

至少两年来，我们一直有一个相当一致的宏观预测. 我们认为2018年将是相当强劲的一年，因为平均GDP增长率为3%.4% [in 2017]. But it came in a little under that growth rate, at 2.我们认为这是由于国际贸易的影响. This year we’re saying it will slow to about a 2.3% growth rate, and then we have it slowing more still in 2020 and 2021, 这两年的增长率都在1%到2%之间. In fact, in 2021 we predict a 1.5% growth rate. Some economists would call that a “growth recession.” 

在增长衰退中，偶尔会出现疲软的季度. The unemployment rate begins to tick up. It will still be fairly low, but we don’t think it will be below 4%, which means we’ll have some soft job-market reports. 

问:是什么导致或将导致gdp和就业增长放缓? 

A  我们认为，一些宏观风险因素将导致经济放缓. Some of them are already baked into the cake. For example, 2018年增长相对稳健的原因是税制改革和减税, which induced a fair amount of business investment. 

That stimulus effect is over, so now we have drags, such as the ongoing trade wars, 哪些因素对制造业和农业部门产生了影响, 这两个行业的疲软也对当地房地产市场产生了明显的影响. 

Another macro factor is the labor market remaining tight. It’s one of those good news/bad news situations. The unemployment rate is 3.7%, which is fantastic. 这有利于租赁住房需求，也有利于待售住房需求. But it can be tough to fill construction industry jobs when productivity growth [GDP] isn’t strong enough and you don’t have wage growth sufficient to lift labor force participation, which means you don’t have an available pool of workers, and therefore, you get slowing job creation. 

问:你提到了贸易政策对当地房地产市场的影响. How so? 

A  由于最近的贸易政策，农业在过去两年中有所下降. Corn and soybean prices are down 50% year over year. Exports have gone down. 所有这些都减少了一些农业地区的住房需求和经济活动.

With manufacturing we have some detail analysis. 我们做了一个叫做住宅建筑地理指数的东西, which we use to track local market conditions. 我们不坐地铁，因为很多人都坐地铁. What we do is track regional conditions. For example, 我们发现，如果你比较大城市郊区和远郊, in the last year the exburbs have been growing faster.

Our forecast window goes through the end of 2021, 而且我们目前的预测表上还没有出现全面衰退. 

But another cut that we did with this index was to look at areas where a large share of employment is attributable to manufacturing. As manufacturing softened, 我们注意到的是，这些制造业地区的独栋建筑也在下降.

We found that in the second quarter last year, 制造业地区的单户住宅许可下降了不到4%. So, 房地产市场明显疲软，这往往依赖于制造业和出口, and that’s a consequence of the trade fight.

The plan on this index, going forward, is to update all of those prior regional differences, and in the next quarter, we’ll introduce a new one. So, we’re talking among ourselves now. 如果是第三季度，我们会去农业地区吗? College towns or areas with a lot of townhouses? There are a lot of different options; the idea being that everybody can come up with a top 10 list of something. We want to stay away from those.

I like this regional thing because it connects the macro elements that we’re talking about to where builders are building. By the way, when we looked at the rest of the country, non-manufacturing areas were down, but they were only down a little bit, so a lot of the recent weakness in single-family construction is concentrated in manufacturing areas. 

Q  What about inflation and interest rates? What do you expect from the Fed? 

A  So you have trade conflict, slowing job creation, 然后我们仍然要警惕任何通胀压力, 尽管通货膨胀在当前的周期中已经消失了. For that reason, 美联储在2018年将基金利率上调100个基点的做法过于激进. 当时的通胀水平不足以要求采取这种政策立场.

The Fed’s job is to maintain maximum employment and prevent inflation, so it’s going to be vigilant. That may mean that while the Fed has definitely moved into a dovish posture—it cut rates in September and we think it’s going to cut rates again, perhaps twice more after that—but it may offer a smaller number of rate cuts than Wall Street expects.

问:这次复苏始于建筑商瞄准高端买家, luxury homes, while attention to building entry-level product, which has typically kicked off past recoveries, came later. 在经济增长衰退之后，我们会看到高档建筑再次开始复苏吗?

A  No. When we look at inventories right now, 这个高端市场的增长潜力并不大, which was the easiest for builders to build to. 我说“最容易”是有保留的，因为“容易”的建筑没有市场.” But in the—let’s call it the custom market—with larger, higher priced homes, there is a lot more resale inventory there. 这一市场份额约占新屋开工量的20%. I expect that market to hold flat. 

我们期望在入门级(住宅)市场看到增长. 它只是开始断断续续，一直很缓慢. It’s kind of been two steps forward, three steps back on entry level, and, if anything, in the last year, 更像是前进三步，后退三步. What we saw in the geography index is that the places where there was a lot of potential for entry-level market expansion were those areas where there was either higher density, single-family detached—so, smaller homes—or townhouse construction. 

我们期望在入门级(住宅)市场看到增长. It’s just starting to come in fits and starts …

Now, if you think about where townhouse construction occurs, there are good examples in the large metro areas, 在靠近公共交通的郊区有联排别墅的地方. But in a lot of cases, that kind of higher density—single-family attached, single-family detached—is occurring in the inner suburbs. When we looked at the geography index, what we found was that those large metro suburbs really slowed down the most due to the housing affordability crunch at the end of 2018 and into the first part of this year. 

That’s the three steps forward, three steps back. 很多建筑商都进入了入门级，但他们在2019年初退缩了. Now that interest rates are lower—to the extent that builders’ financing channels are open—I think we’re going to see expansion at that lower end for the remainder of this part of the cycle.

So, in the high-end market, there’s not a lot of growth potential, but it’s relatively stable, 部分原因是，很大一部分老年mg冰球突破试玩者是大笔现金或大笔首付mg冰球突破试玩者. 入门级市场的增长潜力更大，但波动性也更大.

As a result, some quarters may be stronger, where we see the expansion of that kind of product, and other quarters—because of those buyers seeking out entry-level homes—are going to be more sensitive to changes in housing affordability conditions. 我们在2018年秋季看到了这一点，当时抵押贷款利率达到5%. That high loaned-value mortgage buyer, 没有大笔付款的潜在首次mg冰球突破试玩者, 他们会对这些利率和首付要求非常敏感. 

Q  Mortgage interest rates rose during 2017 and, for some house shoppers, may have created a sense of urgency to buy. What impact, at this point of the economic cycle, 下降/稳定的低抵押贷款利率是否会影响买家和建筑商的信心?

A  Buyer prospects are relatively cautious. If you look at the consumer confidence measures, they’re a little off their highs, but they’re near 20-year lows, so we’re in a pretty good position, even if they’ve been reduced this year because of the stock market decline at the end of 2018 and the partial government shutdown.

但要记住的另一件事是，对于首次mg冰球突破试玩者来说, 他们必须付首付款才能享受低利率. I think that is a challenge because, 由于房价和建筑成本的增长速度继续快于收入的增长, that down payment requirement has become increasingly out of reach for a growing number of first-time buyers. Sometimes when we focus on the rates, 我们失去了将潜在需求转化为可以利用它的人的能力. 

In addition—and this has been my thing for the last four or five years—we can’t forget the supply side. Something like 75% of builders are not high production, 通过华尔街获得融资的全国房屋建筑商. 他们是小型的区域性建筑商，通过银行获得融资, particularly community banks. When we do our quarterly surveys of the financing conditions for acquisition development construction loans [AD&C)，抵押贷款利率去年秋天上升，然后回落. But when we look at interest rates in AD&C类贷款，尤其是建筑贷款，去年秋天上升，并一直保持在高位. 例如，1到4个单位的建设贷款利率在6%左右. It did not come down. 

We do our economic builder survey once a year and we still find that two-thirds of home builders are saying lot supplies in their market are low or very low.

So, 对于贷款而言，还有一些额外的风险因素仍然存在, if you don’t have those lending channels available. 即使你确实有一些增长和潜在需求，由于较低的抵押贷款利率, it can’t translate into growth for single-family permits unless builders can get financing so they can acquire lots, develop land, and build homes. So, I’m a little concerned about that. 

冰球突破试玩收益率曲线倒挂意味着什么，有很多讨论. Of course, it’s part of the stock market technical analysis, 但收益率曲线倒挂并不是经济衰退的充分条件. It doesn’t guarantee that you get one. 这通常是即将到来的经济放缓和某种衰退的迹象, say over the next two to three years.

但这是对债券市场信贷状况的一个警告. 这些市场告诉你，人们对贷款条件有些担忧. So, if you see an inverted yield curve and follow that up with some data about the tightening of credit conditions—in other words, 贷款流量开始下降——这是经济衰退的充分条件.

So far, we don’t see that. 9月10日的消费者信贷报告显示，消费者信贷增长. But the fact that those AD&C loan rates remain elevated is one part of the credit system that appears to be tighter than it was, and that’s a concern. 无论是政策制定者、mg冰球突破试玩者还是其他住房利益相关者, 如果他们担心住房负担能力和库存的相对可用性, they need to be looking at some of these variables within the home building supply side of the market that says we’re not really going to get this huge growth in inventory to take advantage of these lower rates.

Q  Does the inability of prospective first-time buyers to amass a down payment put builders who want to expand into the entry-level market in a vulnerable position?

A  We know from demographics and economic potential that the growth for the home builder is that entry level market. It’s that first-time buyer … that Millennial who is now in their early 30s and renting who wants to buy a single-family home. There are risks. 这就是为什么我说有增长潜力但波动性更高, depending on credit market conditions, builders’ financing costs could go up. 

During most of this recovery, regulatory costs are higher, 随着2018年建筑材料成本的上升，我们看到木材价格出现了过山车般的波动. 房价一度上涨了60%，一套典型的独户住宅价格轻松上涨了8,000美元. 如果你考虑到风险，建筑商需要偿还贷款, and they’ve got to cover those costs, some of which are highly volatile. As growth cycles age, risk tends to grow, 我认为这就是我们在债券市场所看到的情况. There is this growing risk of additional slow-down, even though if you look at the basic economic variables, things tend to be fairly healthy right now. 

Q  So, as consumer confidence goes, it doesn’t necessarily mean that builder confidence will follow?

A  Yes. 我们看到建筑商信心指数去年秋天大幅下跌，此后一直在回升. 它继续上升到65，这是积极的. In the comments from the survey, what we hear builders say is, “I’m worried about my access to skilled labor. 我担心监管成本(包括影响费等), and while I have potential buyers, 由于价格和负担能力的限制，他们不能都给我打电话要求抵押贷款.”

问:NAHB对建筑商是否过度使用土地持何种立场?

A  这取决于建造者的类型和他们在哪里建造. 有很多大型的地铁市场，但它们的位置不对. Our geography index 他说，在今年年初，郊区是唯一增长的地方.

外郊区、内郊区和核心区的独户住宅许可数量都在下降. 远郊的发展是因为这些市场有很多可用的房子.  

如果你和一些分析师交谈，他们可能会说，对于这个都会区来说，地段供应相当大. Well, it depends on where in the metro area. Some of it depends on the kind of builder. 财力雄厚的大型建筑商将更容易获得土地和地块. We do our economic builder survey once a year and we still find that two-thirds of home builders are saying lot supplies in their market are low or very low. So I would still list lots as being scarce or relatively scarce on a nationwide basis for the typical builder—that builder being a small or regional type builder.

我认为这在很大程度上是由于他们看到了相对积极的市场环境, but lots may not be at the prices where builders incorporate them into their business model and can supply homes that meet potential buyers’ budget constraints. Trying to get more efficient zoning rules, trying to fight some of the growth in impact fees, trying to increase the speed at which land development occurs; all those things are factors that could really help with achieving housing affordability.

Q  What is NAHB outlook for home price appreciation?

A  Some volatility. 过去两年我们注意到的是，房价增长一直在放缓. 在此之前，房价的上涨肯定快于收入的增长. 在一个健康的市场中，房价的增长应该与收入的增长完全一致. 当它们生长得更快时，通常是稀缺的标志. 当它们的增长速度超过收入增长速度时，通常是供应过剩的迹象. 

Without a doubt, this market has been characterized by undersupply since we got through the Great Recession because of the lack of home building, so home prices are growing a little faster than incomes. That gap has closed a bit. Frank Nothaft发表了一些有趣的评论, chief economist at CoreLogic, who expects a little bit of re-acceleration [5.4% by July 2020]. I was a little surprised it was that strong because when Frank and I talked about it going into 2017, and thinking about what tax reform would do, 我们说过，我们不指望税改会减少住宅建筑行业, but we did think it was going to slow home price growth. 

This cycle is really about a slowdown. 这与持续多年的大衰退类型的环境无关. 

还有其他更为夸张的估计，比如房价下跌10%. We didn’t think we were going to get anything like that, but we did think home price growth was going to slow. It did. I think what they’re looking at—not us—is that lower rates are going to bring some sideline demand in and home price growth. 我们的预测是房价的增长将继续略快于收入的增长. 如果我们陷入比增长衰退更严重的情况，两者最终都可能放缓. 

One of the things I think we can look at with current conditions is for builders to ask: Is today more like 1998, or is it more like the year 2000? In both of those environments, you had concerns about a slowing economy: 1998 was connected to concerns about financial issues with financial investment firms, but the Fed was able to ease those concerns and the growth cycle continued; in 2000, 美联储缓和了对收益率曲线倒挂的担忧，然后2001年出现了经济衰退.

我倾向于对冲更接近1998年而不是2000年的观点. The current cycle does have some growth potential, but if we would enter into a recession more like 2000, that would give you a fairly good simulation of what this economy in terms of slowing conditions would look like. 这将意味着价格增长放缓，住宅建设放缓. 

This cycle is really about a slowdown. 这与持续多年的大衰退类型的环境无关. It’s quarter to quarter, reviewing your strategic plans. 我会给你们另一个与此一致的例子. 尽管自去年秋天以来，我们已经看到国内生产放缓, 住宅建设劳动力规模持续增长. 考虑到单户住宅许可的下降，这与你所期望的正好相反. You would not expect a lot of growth in home building, but because we had a skilled labor shortage, 人们仍然想让人才进入他们的公司，这样当增长恢复的时候, they’re ready for it. 

We’ve had years of under-building. Builders are being cautious about the macro headwinds, but they still see a lot of demographic potential over the next five to 10 years as those Millennials progressively move into their mid-30s and early 40s and really represent a lot of potential home building demand, particularly on the single-family side.